The conclusion? Critical accolades are most likely for a debut album (b-factor=1, always) or for b-factors in the 15-35 range.
And now, eight years later? Let's extend the chart from the post eight years ago, using the #1 albums on Pitchfork's year-end critics polls as an example:
| Year | Artist | Album | "Years" | "Albums" | b-factor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Lana Del Rey | "Norman Fucking Rockwell" | 9 | 6 | 60 |
| 2018 | Mitski | "Be the Cowboy" | 6 | 5 | 35 |
| 2017 | Kendrick Lamar | "DAMN" | 6 | 4 | 28 |
| 2016 | Solange | "A Seat at the Table" | 14 | 3 | 45 |
| 2015 | Kendrick Lamar | "To Pimp a Butterfly" | 4 | 3 | 15 |
| 2014 | Run The Jewels | "Run the Jewels 2" | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 2013 | Vampire Weekend | "Modern Vampires of the City" | 5 | 3 | 18 |
| 2012 | Kendrick Lamar | "Good Kid, M.A.A.D. City" | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 2011 | Bon Iver | "Bon Iver" | 3 | 2 | 8 |
| 2010 | Kanye West | "My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy" | 6 | 5 | 35 |
| 2009 | Animal Collective | "Merriweather Post Pavilion" | 9 | 9 | 90 |
| 2008 | Fleet Foxes | "Fleet Foxes" | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 2007 | Panda Bear | "Person Pitch" | 8 | 3 | 27 |
| 2006 | The Knife | "Silent Shout" | 5 | 4 | 24 |
| 2005 | Sufjan Stevens | "Illinois" | 5 | 5 | 30 |
| 2004 | Arcade Fire | "Funeral" | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 2003 | The Rapture | "Echoes" | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 2002 | Interpol | Turn on the Bright Lights" | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 2001 | Microphones | "The Glow Pt. 2" | 3 | 5 | 20 |
| 2000 | Radiohead | "Kid A" | 7 | 4 | 32 |
| 1999 | The Dismemberment Plan | "Emergency and I" | 4 | 3 | 15 |
Four out of the eight albums fall squarely in the 15-35 range. Solange's situation is clearly unique, but this is the kind of scenario I was referring to when I wrote about the number of albums likely needing a higher weight that the number of years since a debut. Critical fatigue sets in after a certain number of albums, more so than the number of years that an artist has been around. The same would apply to "Black Messiah" by D'Angelo (and the Vanguard), with a (19+1) x 3 = 60 b-factor.
I wrote that megastars can skew the statistics. Take Kendrick Lamar, with three #1 albums. Which is most representative of the kind of critical peak we're trying to identify? The first one? Just the ones in the 15-35 range? All of them taken together? I'm still not sure.
So the original b-factor reasoning is holding up fairly well ... or is it? There are competing trends as well. Let's look at the Pazz and Jop #1 albums over the same twenty year period:
| Year | Artist | Album | "Years" | "Albums" | b-factor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Kacey Musgraves | "Golden Hour" | 5 | 4 | 24 |
| 2017 | Kendrick Lamar | "DAMN" | 6 | 4 | 28 |
| 2016 | David Bowie | "Blackstar" | 39 | 25 | 1000 |
| 2015 | Kendrick Lamar | "To Pimp a Butterfly" | 4 | 3 | 15 |
| 2014 | D'Angelo and the Vanguard | "Black Messiah" | 19 | 3 | 60 |
| 2013 | Kanye West | "Yeezus" | 8 | 6 | 54 |
| 2012 | Frank Ocean | "Channel Orange" | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 2011 | Tune-Yards | "Whokill" | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 2010 | Kanye West | "My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy" | 6 | 5 | 35 |
| 2009 | Animal Collective | "Merriweather Post Pavilion" | 9 | 9 | 90 |
| 2008 | TV on the Radio | "Dear Science" | 4 | 3 | 15 |
| 2007 | LCD Soundsystem | "Sound of Silver" | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 2006 | Bob Dylan | "Modern Times" | 44 | 32 | 1440 |
| 2005 | Kanye West | "Late Registration" | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 2004 | Kanye West | "The College Dropout" | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 2003 | Outkast | "Speakerboxxx/The Love Below" | 9 | 5 | 50 |
| 2002 | Wilco | "Yankee Hotel Foxtrot" | 7 | 4 | 32 |
| 2001 | Bob Dylan | "Love and Theft" | 39 | 31 | 1240 |
| 2000 | Outkast | "Stankonia" | 6 | 4 | 28 |
| 1999 | Moby | "Play" | 7 | 5 | 40 |
Dylan broke the scale with his late career resurgence, and David Bowie releasing "Blackstar" and dying in the same week is a confluence of events that might never be repeated. Megastar Kanye West had four #1 albums, thereby explaining the relatively high b-factor for "Yeezus".
I see two possible changing trends. First, between the two lists, there hasn't been a debut album at #1 since 2012. However, Pitchfork's list has three sophomore albums in the '10's, and one could argue for lumping together the debut and sophomore releases as the works of new, emerging artists. In that case, they are faring as well as ever, it seems, albeit less so over the past few years.
Second, between Mitski, Lana Del Rey, the critical acclaim for albums such as Low's "Double Negative" (b-factor=300) and Robyn's "Honey" (b-factor = 192), b-factors seem to be slowly rising because "established" artists seem to have a lengthier peak than in the past. A veteran act with more than ten years and several albums in their catalogue would become a "for fans only" enterprise, or at least that's what you'd be led to believe (as a non-fan) based on the perfunctory 6.5/10 or 7/10 reviews for their albums. Familiarity breeds contempt. But now, a true creative spike can generate more critical excitement than in the recent path, presumably because critics see more worth in reliable, consistent acts? On the other hand, more than half the #1 albums from the combined two lists were the third, fourth, or fifth albums from those artists. Right in the 15-35 wheelhouse for b-factor, in other words. It will be interesting to see if any of these are real trends in the coming years.
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