Sunday, January 19, 2020

B-factor revisited

Eight years ago, I looked for a common thread that connected critically acclaimed albums.  I felt there was were two "sweet spots" in an act's career, a window where they were most likely to hit their critical peak (unrelated, perhaps, to their creative peak).  The result was the "b-factor" (admittedly a horrible name), equal to (# of years since the debut album + 1) x (# of albums).

The conclusion?  Critical accolades are most likely for a debut album (b-factor=1, always) or for b-factors in the 15-35 range.

And now, eight years later?  Let's extend the chart from the post eight years ago, using the #1 albums on Pitchfork's year-end critics polls as an example:


Year Artist Album "Years" "Albums" b-factor
2019Lana Del Rey"Norman Fucking Rockwell"9660
2018Mitski"Be the Cowboy"6535
2017Kendrick Lamar"DAMN"6428
2016Solange"A Seat at the Table"14345
2015Kendrick Lamar"To Pimp a Butterfly"4315
2014Run The Jewels"Run the Jewels 2"124
2013Vampire Weekend"Modern Vampires of the City"5318
2012Kendrick Lamar"Good Kid, M.A.A.D. City"124
2011Bon Iver"Bon Iver"328
2010Kanye West"My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy"6535
2009Animal Collective"Merriweather Post Pavilion"9990
2008Fleet Foxes"Fleet Foxes"011
2007Panda Bear"Person Pitch"8327
2006The Knife"Silent Shout"5424
2005Sufjan Stevens"Illinois"5530
2004Arcade Fire"Funeral"011
2003The Rapture"Echoes"011
2002InterpolTurn on the Bright Lights"011
2001Microphones"The Glow Pt. 2"3520
2000Radiohead"Kid A"7432
1999The Dismemberment Plan"Emergency and I"4315


Four out of the eight albums fall squarely in the 15-35 range.  Solange's situation is clearly unique, but this is the kind of scenario I was referring to when I wrote about the number of albums likely needing a higher weight that the number of years since a debut.  Critical fatigue sets in after a certain number of albums, more so than the number of years that an artist has been around.  The same would apply to "Black Messiah" by D'Angelo (and the Vanguard), with a (19+1) x 3 = 60 b-factor.

I wrote that megastars can skew the statistics.  Take Kendrick Lamar, with three #1 albums.  Which is most representative of the kind of critical peak we're trying to identify?  The first one?  Just the ones in the 15-35 range?  All of them taken together?  I'm still not sure.

So the original b-factor reasoning is holding up fairly well ... or is it?  There are competing trends as well.  Let's look at the Pazz and Jop #1 albums over the same twenty year period:


Year Artist Album "Years" "Albums" b-factor
2018Kacey Musgraves"Golden Hour"5424
2017Kendrick Lamar"DAMN"6428
2016David Bowie"Blackstar"39251000
2015Kendrick Lamar"To Pimp a Butterfly"4315
2014D'Angelo and the Vanguard"Black Messiah"19360
2013Kanye West"Yeezus"8654
2012Frank Ocean"Channel Orange"011
2011Tune-Yards"Whokill"226
2010Kanye West"My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy"6535
2009Animal Collective"Merriweather Post Pavilion"9990
2008TV on the Radio"Dear Science"4315
2007LCD Soundsystem"Sound of Silver"226
2006Bob Dylan"Modern Times"44321440
2005Kanye West"Late Registration"124
2004Kanye West"The College Dropout"011
2003Outkast"Speakerboxxx/The Love Below"9550
2002Wilco"Yankee Hotel Foxtrot"7432
2001Bob Dylan"Love and Theft"39311240
2000Outkast"Stankonia"6428
1999Moby"Play"7540

Dylan broke the scale with his late career resurgence, and David Bowie releasing "Blackstar" and dying in the same week is a confluence of events that might never be repeated. Megastar Kanye West had four #1 albums, thereby explaining the relatively high b-factor for "Yeezus". 

I see two possible changing trends.  First, between the two lists, there hasn't been a debut album at #1 since 2012. However, Pitchfork's list has three sophomore albums in the '10's, and one could argue for lumping together the debut and sophomore releases as the works of new, emerging artists.  In that case, they are faring as well as ever, it seems, albeit less so over the past few years.

Second, between Mitski, Lana Del Rey, the critical acclaim for albums such as Low's "Double Negative" (b-factor=300) and Robyn's "Honey" (b-factor = 192), b-factors seem to be slowly rising because "established" artists seem to have a lengthier peak than in the past.  A veteran act with more than ten years and several albums in their catalogue would become a "for fans only" enterprise, or at least that's what you'd be led to believe (as a non-fan) based on the perfunctory 6.5/10 or 7/10 reviews for their albums.  Familiarity breeds contempt.  But now, a true creative spike can generate more critical excitement than in the recent path, presumably because critics see more worth in reliable, consistent acts?   On the other hand, more than half the #1 albums from the combined two lists were the third, fourth, or fifth albums from those artists.  Right in the 15-35 wheelhouse for b-factor, in other words.  It will be interesting to see if any of these are real trends in the coming years. 

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