B-factor revisited

Eight years ago, I looked for a common thread that connected critically acclaimed albums.  I felt there was were two "sweet spots" in an act's career, a window where they were most likely to hit their critical peak (unrelated, perhaps, to their creative peak).  The result was the "b-factor" (admittedly a horrible name), equal to (# of years since the debut album + 1) x (# of albums).

The conclusion?  Critical accolades are most likely for a debut album (b-factor=1, always) or for b-factors in the 15-35 range.

And now, eight years later?  Let's extend the chart from the post eight years ago, using the #1 albums on Pitchfork's year-end critics polls as an example:

Year	Artist	Album	"Years"	"Albums"	b-factor
2019	Lana Del Rey	"Norman Fucking Rockwell"	9	6	60
2018	Mitski	"Be the Cowboy"	6	5	35
2017	Kendrick Lamar	"DAMN"	6	4	28
2016	Solange	"A Seat at the Table"	14	3	45
2015	Kendrick Lamar	"To Pimp a Butterfly"	4	3	15
2014	Run The Jewels	"Run the Jewels 2"	1	2	4
2013	Vampire Weekend	"Modern Vampires of the City"	5	3	18
2012	Kendrick Lamar	"Good Kid, M.A.A.D. City"	1	2	4
2011	Bon Iver	"Bon Iver"	3	2	8
2010	Kanye West	"My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy"	6	5	35
2009	Animal Collective	"Merriweather Post Pavilion"	9	9	90
2008	Fleet Foxes	"Fleet Foxes"	0	1	1
2007	Panda Bear	"Person Pitch"	8	3	27
2006	The Knife	"Silent Shout"	5	4	24
2005	Sufjan Stevens	"Illinois"	5	5	30
2004	Arcade Fire	"Funeral"	0	1	1
2003	The Rapture	"Echoes"	0	1	1
2002	Interpol	Turn on the Bright Lights"	0	1	1
2001	Microphones	"The Glow Pt. 2"	3	5	20
2000	Radiohead	"Kid A"	7	4	32
1999	The Dismemberment Plan	"Emergency and I"	4	3	15

Four out of the eight albums fall squarely in the 15-35 range.  Solange's situation is clearly unique, but this is the kind of scenario I was referring to when I wrote about the number of albums likely needing a higher weight that the number of years since a debut.  Critical fatigue sets in after a certain number of albums, more so than the number of years that an artist has been around.  The same would apply to "Black Messiah" by D'Angelo (and the Vanguard), with a (19+1) x 3 = 60 b-factor.

I wrote that megastars can skew the statistics.  Take Kendrick Lamar, with three #1 albums.  Which is most representative of the kind of critical peak we're trying to identify?  The first one?  Just the ones in the 15-35 range?  All of them taken together?  I'm still not sure.

So the original b-factor reasoning is holding up fairly well ... or is it?  There are competing trends as well.  Let's look at the Pazz and Jop #1 albums over the same twenty year period:

Year	Artist	Album	"Years"	"Albums"	b-factor
2018	Kacey Musgraves	"Golden Hour"	5	4	24
2017	Kendrick Lamar	"DAMN"	6	4	28
2016	David Bowie	"Blackstar"	39	25	1000
2015	Kendrick Lamar	"To Pimp a Butterfly"	4	3	15
2014	D'Angelo and the Vanguard	"Black Messiah"	19	3	60
2013	Kanye West	"Yeezus"	8	6	54
2012	Frank Ocean	"Channel Orange"	0	1	1
2011	Tune-Yards	"Whokill"	2	2	6
2010	Kanye West	"My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy"	6	5	35
2009	Animal Collective	"Merriweather Post Pavilion"	9	9	90
2008	TV on the Radio	"Dear Science"	4	3	15
2007	LCD Soundsystem	"Sound of Silver"	2	2	6
2006	Bob Dylan	"Modern Times"	44	32	1440
2005	Kanye West	"Late Registration"	1	2	4
2004	Kanye West	"The College Dropout"	0	1	1
2003	Outkast	"Speakerboxxx/The Love Below"	9	5	50
2002	Wilco	"Yankee Hotel Foxtrot"	7	4	32
2001	Bob Dylan	"Love and Theft"	39	31	1240
2000	Outkast	"Stankonia"	6	4	28
1999	Moby	"Play"	7	5	40

Dylan broke the scale with his late career resurgence, and David Bowie releasing "Blackstar" and dying in the same week is a confluence of events that might never be repeated. Megastar Kanye West had four #1 albums, thereby explaining the relatively high b-factor for "Yeezus". 

I see two possible changing trends.  First, between the two lists, there hasn't been a debut album at #1 since 2012. However, Pitchfork's list has three sophomore albums in the '10's, and one could argue for lumping together the debut and sophomore releases as the works of new, emerging artists.  In that case, they are faring as well as ever, it seems, albeit less so over the past few years.

Second, between Mitski, Lana Del Rey, the critical acclaim for albums such as Low's "Double Negative" (b-factor=300) and Robyn's "Honey" (b-factor = 192), b-factors seem to be slowly rising because "established" artists seem to have a lengthier peak than in the past.  A veteran act with more than ten years and several albums in their catalogue would become a "for fans only" enterprise, or at least that's what you'd be led to believe (as a non-fan) based on the perfunctory 6.5/10 or 7/10 reviews for their albums.  Familiarity breeds contempt.  But now, a true creative spike can generate more critical excitement than in the recent path, presumably because critics see more worth in reliable, consistent acts?   On the other hand, more than half the #1 albums from the combined two lists were the third, fourth, or fifth albums from those artists.  Right in the 15-35 wheelhouse for b-factor, in other words.  It will be interesting to see if any of these are real trends in the coming years.